Ukubuyekezwa kwemakethe yensimbi ngo-Agasti, kusukela ezinsukwini ezingu-31, nakuba intengo yensimbi ine-rebound encane phakathi nenkathi, kodwa isikhathi esiningi esimweni sokusebenza sokwehla kokushaqeka, inkomba yentengo yensimbi eyinhlanganisela yawa amaphuzu angu-89, intambo nocingo lwawa. Amaphuzu angama-97 nangama-88, ipuleti eliphakathi neliwugqinsi, amanani ashisiwe ehle ngo-103, 132, amanani abandayo aphansi.I-62% yenani le-iron ore ikhuphuke ngamadola ayi-6 aseMelika, inkomba yentengo ye-coke eyinhlanganisela iphinde yafinyelela amaphuzu ayi-6, izintengo zensimbi ezilahliwe zehla ngamaphuzu angama-48, ukusuka esilinganisweni senani lentengo, izintengo zensimbi eziyinhlanganisela, ipuleti elishisayo eligoqiwe nelibandayo liphinde laphindaphinda amaphuzu angu-1, 32 no-113, intambo, ucingo nepuleti kwehle ngamaphuzu angama-47, angama-44 nangama-17 ngokulandelana.Into eqediwe ibibuthakathaka kunalokho obekulindelwe, futhi uphethiloli ongahluziwe ubunamandla kunalokho obekulindelwe.Kodwa-ke, embikweni wenyanga edlule, kwaphinde kwashiwo ngokucacile ukuthi ukufika kwenqubomgomo yokuvinjelwa kokukhiqiza kuyisisekelo sokuphindaphinda, futhi kuyadingeka ukuvimbela amabhizinisi ekukhawuleni ukukhiqiza.Njengoba sibheke phambili emakethe yensimbi ngoSepthemba, izigayo zensimbi bezilokhu zilawula ukukhiqizwa, amanani ensimbi akhuphuka kalula futhi kunzima ukuwa, futhi uphethiloli oluhlaza kulula ukuwa futhi kunzima ukwenyuka.
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Emakethe yensimbi ngo-Agasti, akunangqondo ukusho ukuthi kungakhathaliseki ukuthi inqubomgomo yokulawula ukukhiqiza, esimweni sokwehla kwesidingo esivamile se-off-season, izigayo zensimbi zikhetha ukukhetha ukugcina amazinga okukhiqiza, kodwa futhi zenqaba ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa, okuholela ekutheni ezigayweni zensimbi inzuzo yehle isuka ku-64.94% yaya ku-51.08%, izigayo zensimbi kungathiwa zicoshe ikhabe elilahlekile lesesame, ezinye zingase zingawutholi ngisho usesame.
Nakuba ukunakekelwa kokukhiqizwa kwensimbi kuye kwakhulula ingcindezi yendawo ngokwezimali ngokwezinga elithile, kulimaze izithakazelo zemboni kanye namabhizinisi, futhi ekugcineni kulimaze izithakazelo zezwe (kusukela ekukhuphukeni kwentengo yensimbi engenangqondo).
Sibheke phambili emakethe yensimbi ngoSepthemba, izintengo zensimbi zisenengcindezi yasesiteji, ikakhulukazi ku:
Eyokuqala ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka, kusukela kudatha yenyunyana yensimbi, isilinganiso sansuku zonke sensimbi encibilikisiwe phakathi nasekupheleni kuka-August kwaba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.456, kanye nokukhishwa kwensimbi encibilikisiwe ngesonto lokugcina lokuphela kwenyanga. ayizange yehle, esezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu, ibeka ingcindezi yokuhlinzeka emakethe phakathi noSepthemba.
Okwesibili ingcindezi yesidingo, isilinganiso sokushintshana kwansuku zonke kwezinto zokwakha ngo-Agasti singamathani ayi-145,000, inhloko-dolobha yengqalasizinda, izindlu nomhlaba kanye nokwakhiwa okusha kusenezingqinamba ekukhishweni kwesidingo ngoSepthemba, nakuba isidingo sesizini sizoba nesidingo. ukukhululwa okuthile, kodwa umfutho usuwonke usenganele, ingcindezi isekhona.Mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, umehluko wentengo phakathi kwasekhaya naphesheya uye wancipha kakhulu, futhi isidingo saphesheya sehlile, okuzophinde kuholele ekuphumeni okuqondile nokuqondile kwemikhiqizo yensimbi yehle kakhulu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uphethiloli wangempela uzovula isigaba esisemthethweni sokwehla ngoSepthemba, futhi intengo yensimbi ingase yakhe ukudonsa kwesiteji esithile.
NgoSeptemba, ngisho noma intengo yensimbi iwa, isikhala silinganiselwe, okokuqala, umshini wensimbi wamanje uyingxenye yenzuzo yenkampani, futhi noma ngabe kukhona inzuzo, ayinaki, insimbi yawa 50 kuya ku-100 yuan / ton, izigayo zensimbi ezinenzuzo, zingase zibuyele cishe ku-30%, ngaleso sikhathi, asikho isidingo sokukhawulela ukukhiqizwa, izigayo zensimbi zizophinde zinciphise ukukhiqiza, zenze ukuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kabusha, futhi intengo iyalungiswa.
Uma sibheka phambili emakethe yensimbi ngoSepthemba, izici eziyinhloko ezenza kube lula ukuthi amanani ensimbi aphinde akhuphuke:
Okokuqala, i-macro sentiment isilungisiwe.Bheka inkomba yokusabalalisa okukhulu kweGuosen Securities ngesonto lika-Agasti 25, eliphinde lakhuphuka amasonto amabili alandelanayo, okubonisa ukuthi ukukhuphuka komnotho kuthuthukile, ikakhulukazi ngemuva kokumiswa kwesizini, futhi kuyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, okungcono kunezinga eliphakathi lomlando. , futhi ikhombisa ukuthi ukusimama komnotho kuhle.Ngomhla zingama-29 kuNcwaba, iseshini yesihlanu yeKomidi Elimisiwe leNgqungquthela Kazwelonke Yeshumi nane yabuyekeza uMbiko WoMkhandlu Kazwelonke Wokufezekiswa Kwesabelomali kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka mhla zingama-28, futhi lakubeka kwacaca ukuthi esinye sezihluthulelo ezinhlanu. imisebenzi yezimali esinyathelweni esilandelayo ukuvimbela kanye nokudambisa ubungozi bezikweletu zohulumeni wasekhaya.Uhulumeni omkhulu ubasekela ngenkuthalo ohulumeni basekhaya ekuxazululeni izingozi zezikweletu ezifihlekile, unxusa ohulumeni basekhaya ukuthi baxhumanise zonke izinhlobo zezimali, izimpahla, izinsiza kanye nezinqubomgomo nezinyathelo ezihlukahlukene ezisekelayo, ugxile kakhulu emadolobheni nasezifundeni ukuze kuqinise umsebenzi wabo, baxazulule kahle izikweletu ezikhona ezifihliwe, thuthukisa ukwakheka kwethemu, wehlise inzalo, futhi wehlise kancane kancane ubungozi bezikweletu.Ngaphezu kwalokho, inqubomgomo yokuqaphela izindlu nokungaqapheli izikweletu ivuliwe, futhi kungase kube nomnyakazo omkhulu esikhathini esizayo, okunciphisa nokucindezela.
Okwesibili, insimbi iyi-rebound encane kuleli gagasi lempahla, kukhona indawo yokulungiswa.Ukubuka inkomba yempahla ye-Mandarin, iphinde yavela ku-165.72 ekupheleni kukaMeyi kuya ku-189.14 ngo-Agasti 30, i-rebound ye-14.1%, inkontileka ye-thread 10 iphinde yavela ku-3388 ekupheleni kukaMeyi kuya ku-3717 ngo-30, i-rebound ye-9.7%, i-rebound ye-9.7%, izimpahla ezimbalwa nazo zibonakale ziyiphinda kabili imakethe.Uma ubheka kuphela okuyisisekelo sakho, okuyisisekelo kwentambo akukubi, futhi kukhona inqubomgomo yezimboni (amandla okukhiqiza, ukulawulwa okuphindwe kabili okukhiphayo), kufanele kube nendawo yokulungisa.
Okwesithathu, isidingo sensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngezikhathi ezithile zonyaka ngoSepthemba.Kusukela ekubonweni kwedatha yenyunyana yensimbi, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe ka-August kungase kungawi kodwa kwande, kulinganiselwa ukuthi isilinganiso sokukhiqizwa kwansuku zonke noma amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.95, kanye nesampula yezibalo zenyunyana yensimbi izokwenyuka ngamathani angu-330,000, okubonisa ukuthi insimbi engahluziwe. ukusetshenziswa ngo-Agasti ngoJulayi kukhuphuke cishe ngo-10.5% ngemuva, kusengenzeka ukugcina ukukhula okungaba ngu-10% unyaka nonyaka, futhi isidingo asizange sehle.Ngo-September, ngokwehla kwezinga lokushisa, ukwakhiwa kabusha ngemva kwesikhukhula, ukushesha kwephrojekthi, njll., isidingo kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngesikhathi esifanayo nenyanga ngenyanga.
Ngokwenhlolovo yokwakhiwa kwekhulunyaka, isidingo esingezansi kwemboni yezokwakha: ukukhiqizwa kukasimende kwamabhizinisi angu-250 kwakungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.629, okwakungu-+5.05% (inani langaphambilini +1.93) kanye -28.3% (inani langaphambili -31.2).Ngokombono wesifunda, iNingizimu China kuphela eyathintwa ukwanda kwemvula, eyehla inyanga nenyanga, kuyilapho iNyakatho ye-China, iNingizimu-ntshonalanga, iNyakatho-ntshonalanga, i-Central China, i-East China neNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-China zonke ziphinde zabuya.Isidingo semiklamo emikhulu yengqalasizinda: usimende unikezwa amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.17, +4.3% ngokulandelana (inani langaphambilini +1.5), unyaka nonyaka -4.8% (inani langaphambili -5.5).Ngakolunye uhlangothi, eminye imicimbi yesifunda isizobanjwa, futhi amaphrojekthi wengqalasizinda anezinsuku zokugcina ezisobala;Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lamaphrojekthi asanda kuqalwa liye landa, futhi isidingo sezinto zokwakha kwamanye amaphrojekthi aqediwe siphinde sabuyela emuva.Isidingo sokwakhiwa kwezindlu: Umthamo wokuthutha ukhonkolo weziteshi zokuxuba ezingu-506 wawungamamitha-skwele ayizigidi ezingu-2.201, +2.5% isonto ngalinye (inani langaphambilini +1.9), kanye -21.5% unyaka nonyaka (inani langaphambilini -30.5).Ngokombono wesifunda, ngenxa yokubhidlizwa nokwakhiwa kabusha kwezinye iziteshi zokuxubana eNyakatho yeChina, umthamo wezimoto uyancipha, futhi umthamo wezimoto eNingizimu China uyancipha ngemva kokwanda kwemvula, kuyilapho enkabeni yeChina, eNingizimu-ntshonalanga, INyakatho-mpumalanga, iNyakatho-ntshonalanga ne-East China ziyanda.Izinqubomgomo ezivumayo zesikhathi eside, ukuthengwa komfula kukhuphuke amaviki amathathu.Kusukela mhla zingama-21 kuNcwaba kuya kumhla zingama-27 kuNcwaba, isamba sezindlu ezintsha zezentengiselwano emadolobheni angu-8 ayisikwele esingu-1,942,300, okuwukunyuka ngo-4.7% ngesonto.Ngaleso sikhathi, ingqikithi yendawo yokuthengiselana kwezindlu ezingamasekeni (izinkontileka) emadolobheni angu-8 abalulekile yayingamamitha-skwele ayi-1.319,800, okuwukunyuka ngo-6.4% ngesonto nesonto.
Kusukela ohlwini lwakamuva lwezimpahla eziqediwe zamabhizinisi ezimboni olukhishwe yi-National Bureau of Statistics, luqhubekile nokwehla, lwehla lwaya ku-1.6% ngoJulayi uma luqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, futhi uhlu lwempahla lwehle ngo-0.2% uma luqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, zonke zisesimweni esiphansi kakhulu emlandweni.Idatha yemboni engaphansi ikhombisa ukuthi imishini yokuthutha ephezulu kakhulu, imboni yemishini kagesi, kanye nenani eliphansi lezokuxhumana kwamakhompiyutha, imishini ejwayelekile kanye nezinye izimboni kubonakale izimpawu zokugcwaliswa, okubonisa ukuthi isidingo sezinto zokwakha sehlile ngasikhathi sinye. , ukukhula kwesidingo sensimbi yokukhiqiza sekwenzele ngokugcwele igebe.Lo mkhuba kulindeleke ukuthi uqhubeke, mhlawumbe ngoSepthemba, kuzoba nokukhululwa okwengeziwe kwesidingo esiphakathi.Ngokusho kwedatha yesampula yocwaningo lwe-steel Union, ngoSepthemba, ukusetshenziswa kwansuku zonke kwezinto ezingavuthiwe esakhiweni sensimbi, izimoto nezinye izimboni zensimbi kukhuphuke ngo-3.23%, 8.57% no-8.89% ngokulandelana, kwathi izimboni zemishini nezisetshenziswa zasendlini zehla. ngo-4.07% no-7.35% ngokulandelana.
Okwesine, ukuhlinzekwa kwensimbi kuzokwehla ngoSepthemba.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amanye amabhizinisi aphoqeleka ukuthi anciphise ukulahlekelwa kokukhiqiza kanye nokulungisa kabusha, amanye amabhizinisi aseqalile ukusebenzisa izinqubomgomo zokuvinjelwa kokukhiqiza, futhi ukulawulwa kwemvelo kuye kwaba nzima, okuzoletha ingcindezi ekukhishweni kokuhlinzekwa kwamanye amabhizinisi.Ngomhla ziyi-15 ku-Agasti, uMnyango Wezemvelo Nezemvelo, uMnyango Wezokuphepha Komphakathi kanye ne-Supreme People's Procuratorate ngokuhlanganyela baqondisa amacala ayi-11 okuqapha okuzenzakalelayo kwedatha yokukhohlisa kokungcoliswa kwemvelo ngamayunithi abalulekile akhipha ukungcola.Lawa macala ayi-11 adluliselwe umnyango wezemvelo ophikweni lwezokuphepha komphakathi ukuze luphenywe ngokuhlanganyela futhi lusingathwe, abandakanya inqwaba yamabhizinisi ezifundazweni eziyisishiyagalolunye, womabili amayunithi akhipha ukungcola kanye namayunithi okusebenza nokulungiswa kweqembu lesithathu.Ngokwedatha yocwaningo lwesampula, inani elincane lamabhizinisi amasampula ngoSepthemba ukukhiqizwa kwentambo ngo-Agasti noma cishe u-5% wehla.
Ngenxa yokubambezeleka kokuqaliswa kwenqubomgomo yokulawula ukukhiqiza ngezigayo zensimbi ngezizathu ezihlukahlukene, ngesisekelo sonyaka wonyaka wokukhipha amathani ayizigidi ezingu-17.28 ngoJanuwari kuya kuJulayi, okungenani izigidi ezingu-7.5 ngo-August, okungukuthi, insimbi engahluziwe yanda. cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingama-24.78 ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti.Lokhu kusho ukuthi ezinsukwini ezingu-122 kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya kuZibandlela, usuku olujwayelekile kumele lukhiqize amathani angaphansi kuka-203,000, kanti isilinganiso sansuku zonke sokukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya kuZibandlela ngonyaka odlule singamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.654, okusho ukuthi isilinganiso sansuku zonke sokukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe kusuka. Septhemba kuya ku-December kulo nyaka ngeke idlule 2.451 amathani abayizigidi ezingu, okuyinto namanje ngokusho imiphumela control flat ukubala.Lokhu kusho ukuthi isilinganiso sansuku zonke sensimbi engahluziwe ngonyaka sizokwehliswa ngamathani angaba ngu-500,000 ngokwesisekelo samanje.
Ngakho-ke, kusukela kumbono ongenhla, intengo yensimbi iphinde ibuyele emuva akunzima.
Ngokombono kaphethiloli ongahluziwe, nakuba ekuqaleni konyaka, ngiphinde ngasho ukuthi imakethe ingene esigabeni esisha sobuthakathaka bokuhweba, ukukhathazeka, okungahambisani nokungaqondakali, ukunyuka kwakamuva okuqhubekayo kwamanani e-iron ore, nakuba sazi okuthile okungenakugwemeka. izici (ukubiyela izikhundla ezimfushane, ukwehla kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi enesivinini esikhulu, i-ore ephansi, njll.), kodwa nokho uhwebo olunomsindo omningi: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isilinganiso sensimbi encibilikisiwe yansuku zonke samabhizinisi angama-247 sasiphelele. adayiswa, kodwa alinaki iqiniso lokuthi isilinganiso sokukhiqizwa kwensimbi yengulube yansuku zonke ye-Bureau of Statistics ngoJulayi (amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.503) wehla ngamathani angu-63,000 uma kuqhathaniswa noJuni (amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.566).Ngakolunye uhlangothi, bahweba ngokugcwele i-inventory ephansi ye-iron ore, kodwa banganakwa izinyanga zokuqala ezingu-7 zensimbi yengulube kuphela kwanda ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-17.9, kuyilapho i-iron ore ingenisa ngaphandle kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-43.21 kanye ne-ore yasekhaya yanda ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-34.59 (vumela. bebodwa bathi inani le-iron ore likazwelonke alikho ngaphansi kwenani elikhulu kakhulu, inani lokugaya insimbi lehla ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-9.65);Ukwengeza, ihwebe ngokugcwele ngenzuzo ye-windfall yezimayini ezivela kwamanye amazwe, kodwa yaziba inzuzo encane eqhubekayo kanye nokulahlekelwa kwamabhizinisi okukhiqiza insimbi;Ukwengeza, ukuhweba ngokugcwele iqiniso kanye nokulindelwe kwezigayo zensimbi okwesikhashana akunciphisi ukukhiqizwa noma ngisho nokulawula ukukhiqizwa esikhathini esizayo, kodwa ngokunganaki ubucayi nokuthembeka kwenqubomgomo yokulawula okubili.Manje ingcindezi enkulu ensimbi kanye nokudonswa kukaphethiloli oluhlaza ngokungenangqondo, ekuqaleni kwesikhathi sokufika kwenqubomgomo ngoSepthemba, ngokombono wokuhlonipha imakethe, laba bobabili bazoletha ukubuyiselwa kwabo okunengqondo, intengo kaphethiloli ongahluziwe. kuyindaba yesikhathi nesigqi kuphela, ubukhulu, uma iba yinde, ikhuphuka kakhulu, siba sikhulu isikhala sokwehla kwesikhathi esizayo.
Idatha ye-International Steel Association ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJulayi, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yengulube yomhlaba wonke kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-774, ukwanda kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-17 ngesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule amathani ayizigidi ezingu-757, ngokusho kwe-1 ton ye-pig iron ukusetshenziswa kwamathani angu-1.6 we insimbi ukulinganisa, ngaphezu kwesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule ukudla iron ore cishe 27 million amathani.Phakathi kwazo, iChina yakhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezingu-532 ezingulube zensimbi, ukwanda kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-24 kusukela kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-508 ngesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, futhi yadla amathani ayizigidi ezingu-38 ngaphezulu kwensimbi.Ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi encibilikisiwe kwamanye amazwe kwehla ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-7 unyaka nonyaka, kanti ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi kwehla ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-11,2.Kungabonakala kudatha ye-WSA ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwe-iron yengulube yaseChina kukhuphuke ngo-4.7% unyaka nonyaka, futhi ukwanda kwayo kwaba ngu-140% wokwanda komhlaba wonke, okusho ukuthi, ukwanda kwesidingo sensimbi yomhlaba wonke kwavela eChina. .Kodwa-ke, ngokwezibalo ezifanele, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi emhlabeni wonke kukhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-63 kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJulayi, nensalela yamathani ayizigidi ezingu-25.Kusukela kudatha yokubuka ngesathelayithi, ukukhiqizwa okwedlulele kwamazwe ngamazwe kwensimbi iqoqwa kakhulu ezikhumulweni zaphesheya kwezilwandle kanye nempahla yokukhukhuleka olwandle.Ingxenye ye-iron ore ye-Steel Union ilinganisela ukuthi kunezelwe okungenani amathani ayizigidi ezingu-15 ensimbi yensimbi phesheya kwezilwandle.
Ishubhu yekhoyili yensimbi engagqwali
Kungabonakala ukuthi isampula nenombolo yesampula zihlukile, ireferensi ayifani, futhi iziphetho zingase zehluke.Iphuzu elilodwa ukuthi ukusebenza kwenani elincane lamasampuli ngezikhathi ezithile kungase kungahambisani nedatha yawo wonke amasampuli, noma ngabe ngokwesiqondiso soshintsho, ikakhulukazi mayelana nobukhulu boshintsho, okungase kuvamise ukudala umsindo. okwenziwayo, futhi lokhu kuthenga kuvame ukuba uhambo.Ngaphandle kokufinyelela ekugcineni.
Ngamafuphi, imakethe yensimbi ngoSepthemba, esimweni sokwethulwa okwengeziwe kwezinqubomgomo ezahlukahlukene kanye nokuqaliswa kwemizamo, amanani entengo ensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi alethe ukubuya kwangempela ngemuva kokuphuma ngokuphindaphindiwe ekupheleni kuka-Agasti.Nakulokhu futhi, kunconywa ukuthi izigayo zensimbi kufanele zisebenzise ngokuzimisela ukulawula ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa, ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kanye nenzuzo yangaphambi kwesikhathi, abahwebi namatheminali baqhubeka nokukhiya ngentshiseko kwezinye izinsiza ezishibhile, basebenzise ikusasa noma ithuluzi lokukhetha i-arbitrage, bahlangabezane nokuphansi. ukulinganisa kwezinto eziningi zokuqala, bese uhlangabezana nenani eliphezulu likaphethiloli wangempela, noma ungenise iwindi lesikhathi esingcono.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-02-2023