Uma izintengo zensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke nokukhuphuka ngo-2023, isidingo sokukhiqiza insimbi kufanele sibe phezulu kunasekupheleni kuka-2022. UVladimir Zapletin/iStock/Getty Images Plus
Ngokweningi labaphendulile ocwaningweni lwethu lwakamuva lwe-Steel Market Update (SMU), amanani epuleti ehlile noma asezophela.Sibona futhi abantu abaningi bebikezela ukunyuka kwamanani ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Ezingeni eliyisisekelo, lokhu kungenxa yokuthi sibona ukwanda kancane kwesikhathi sokuhola - isilinganiso samaviki angu-0.5 kamuva nje.Isibonelo, isilinganiso sesikhathi sokuhola se-oda yekhoyili egoqiwe (HRC) sasingaphansi kwamaviki ama-4 futhi manje sengamaviki angu-4.4 (bheka uMdwebo 1).
Izikhathi zokuhola zingaba inkomba ebalulekile yokushintsha kwentengo.Isikhathi sokuhola samaviki angu-4.4 asisho ukuthi intengo ephezulu iwukuwina, kodwa uma siqala ukubona izikhathi zokuhola ze-HRC ezihlanganisa amaviki amahlanu kuya kwayisithupha, amathuba okunyuka kwentengo akhuphuka kakhulu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izigayo mancane amathuba okuthi zixoxisane ngamanani aphansi kunamaviki adlule.Khumbula ukuthi izinyanga ezimbalwa, cishe bonke abakhiqizi babelungele izaphulelo ukuze baqoqe ama-oda.
Izikhathi zokuhola zinyukile futhi abambalwa abagayo bazimisele ukuvala izivumelwano ngemuva kokuthi izigayo zase-US naseCanada zimemezele ukunyuka kwentengo ngama-dollar angu-60 ithani ($3 a hundredweight) ngesonto ngemva kokubonga i-Thanksgiving.Emkhiwaneni.Umfanekiso wesi-2 unikeza ukubuka okufushane kokulindelwe kwentengo ngaphambi nangemva kokumenyezelwa kokukhuphuka kwentengo.(Qaphela: Izigayo zamaphaneli zizimisele kakhulu ukuxoxisana ngamanani aphansi njengoba umenzi wephaneli ohamba phambili uNucor ememezele ukuncishiswa kwentengo ka-$140 ngethani ngalinye.)
Izibikezelo zehlukana ngaphambi kokuthi izigayo zephaneli zimemezele ukunyuka kwamanani.Cishe u-60% ukholelwa ukuthi amanani azohlala esezingeni elifanayo.Lokhu akuvamile.Ngokuphawulekayo, cishe u-20% ukholelwa ukuthi uzodlula u-$700/tonne, kanti omunye u-20% noma ngakho ulindele ukuthi ehle aze afike ku-$500/tonne.Lokhu kwangimangaza ngaleso sikhathi, njengoba u-$500/tonne wawususondele ekwephuleni isitshalo esihlanganisiwe, ikakhulukazi uma ufaka isaphulelo senani lendawo yenkontileka.
Kusukela lapho, isixuku esingu-$700/ton (30%) sikhulile, cishe ngo-12% wabaphenduli abalindele izintengo zibe ngu-$500/ton noma zehle ezinyangeni ezimbili.Kuyathakazelisa futhi ukuthi ezinye izintengo zesibikezelo ziphakeme kakhulu kunentengo ehlosiwe enolaka engu-$700/t emenyezelwe ezinye izigayo.Lo mphumela ubukeka sengathi balindele omunye umjikelezo wokwenyuka kwentengo, futhi bakholelwa ukuthi lokhu kukhuphuka okungeziwe kuzodla umfutho.
Siphinde sabona ushintsho oluncane lwamanani ezikhungweni zesevisi, okuphakamisa umthelela othile wakamuva wezintengo eziphezulu zasembonini (bona uMfanekiso 3).Ngesikhathi esifanayo, inani lezikhungo zesevisi landa (11%), amanani okubika akhuphuka.Ngaphezu kwalokho, abambalwa (46%) bazokwehlisa amanani.
Sibone ukuthambekela okufanayo ngo-Agasti noSepthemba ngemuva kochungechunge lokukhuphuka kwamanani embonini.Ekugcineni, behluleka.Iqiniso liwukuthi isonto alikwenzi ukuthambekela.Emasontweni ambalwa ezayo, ngizobe ngibhekisisa ukuze ngibone ukuthi izikhungo zesevisi ziyaqhubeka yini nokubonisa isithakazelo ekukhuphukeni kwamanani.
Futhi khumbula ukuthi imizwa ingaba umshayeli wentengo ebalulekile esikhathini esifushane.Sibone ukwanda okukhulu kwe-positivity muva nje.Bheka umkhiwane.4.
Lapho bebuzwa ukuthi banethemba yini mayelana nombono wengxenye yokuqala ka-2023, ama-73% ayenethemba.Uma kubhekwa ukuthi ikota yokuqala ivamise ukuba matasa, akuyona into engavamile ukubona ithemba onyakeni omusha.Izinkampani zigcwalisa amasheya azo ngaphambi kwenkathi yokwakhiwa kwentwasahlobo.Ngemuva kwamaholidi, umsebenzi wezimoto uphinde wanda.Futhi, akusadingeki ukhathazeke ngezintela zesitoko ekupheleni konyaka.
Kodwa-ke, bengingalindele ukuthi abantu babe nethemba elingaka mayelana nezihloko ezimayelana nempi eYurophu, amanani enzalo aphezulu kanye nokwehla kwamandla omnotho okungenzeka.Ungakuchaza kanjani?Ingabe ithemba ngokusetshenziswa kwengqalasizinda, izinhlinzeko zoMthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Kwamanani Emali ezikhuthaza ukwakhiwa kwamapulazi asebenzisa insimbi komoya kanye nelanga, noma okunye?Ngingathanda ukwazi ukuthi ucabangani.
Okungikhathazayo kancane ukuthi asiziboni izinguquko ezibalulekile esidingweni sisonke (bona Umfanekiso 5).Iningi (66%) lithe isimo sizinzile.Baningi abantu abathi behla (22%) kunababenyuka (12%).Uma amanani eqhubeka nokukhuphuka, imboni yensimbi kufanele ibone ukuthuthukiswa kokufunwa.
Ngalo lonke ithemba cishe ngo-2023, enye into engenza ngizibuze ukuthi izikhungo zesevisi nabakhiqizi baziphatha kanjani izinto zabo.Ngicabanga ukuthi manje sengingasho ukuthi u-2021 unyaka wokubuyisela kabusha, u-2022 unyaka wokuqothula, futhi u-2023 unyaka wokubuyisela kabusha.Kungase kube njalo.Kodwa akukona mayelana nezinombolo.Iningi labaphendulile ocwaningweni lwethu liyaqhubeka nokubika ukuthi libambe isitokwe, nenani elikhulu eliqhubeka nokwehlisa isitoko.Zimbalwa kuphela izitoko zokwakha ezibikiwe.
Umnotho oqinile wokukhiqiza ngo-2023 uncike ekutheni futhi nini lapho sibona umjikelezo wokubuyisela isitoko.Uma kufanele ngikhethe into eyodwa engizoyibheka emasontweni ambalwa ezayo ngaphandle kwamanani, izikhathi zokuhola, izingxoxo zasefekthri, kanye nomuzwa wemakethe, kungaba amasheya omthengi.
Ungakhohlwa ukubhalisela iNkomfa ye-Tampa Steel February 5-7.Funda kabanzi futhi ubhalise lapha: www.tampasteelconference.com/registration.
Sizoba nabaphathi abaphezulu abavela ezimbonini zase-US, Canada naseMexico, kanye nochwepheshe abahamba phambili kwezamandla, inqubomgomo yezohwebo kanye ne-geopolitics.Lesi yisikhathi sokuvakasha esiphezulu eFlorida, ngakho cabanga ukubhuka ngokushesha okukhulu.Ayengekho amagumbi ehhotela anele.
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Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-15-2023