Senza ucwaningo lwemakethe ezimele ezinhlobonhlobo zezimpahla zomhlaba wonke futhi sinedumela lobuqotho, ukwethembeka, ukuzimela kanye nokwethembeka kumakhasimende emikhakheni yezimayini, yensimbi kanye nomanyolo.
I-CRU Consulting inikeza iseluleko esinolwazi nesisebenzayo ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zamakhasimende ethu kanye nababambiqhaza bawo.Inethiwekhi yethu ebanzi, ukuqonda okujulile kwemakethe yezimpahla kanye nesiyalo sokuhlaziya kusivumela ukuthi sisize amakhasimende ethu enqubweni yokuthatha izinqumo.
Ithimba lethu lezeluleko linentshisekelo yokuxazulula izinkinga nokwakha ubudlelwano besikhathi eside namakhasimende ethu.Thola okwengeziwe mayelana namaqembu aseduze nawe.
Khulisa ukusebenza kahle, ukhuphule inzuzo, unciphise isikhathi sokuphumula - thuthukisa uchungechunge lwakho lokuhlinzeka ngosizo lwethimba lethu lochwepheshe elizinikele.
Imicimbi ye-CRU isingatha imicimbi yebhizinisi nobuchwepheshe ehamba phambili embonini yezimakethe zempahla zomhlaba.Ulwazi lwethu ngezimboni esizihlinzekayo, kuhlanganiswe nobudlelwano bethu obuthembekile nemakethe, kusivumela ukuthi sinikeze izinhlelo ezibalulekile ezisekelwe ezihlokweni ezethulwa abaholi abacabangayo embonini yethu.
Ngezinkinga ezinkulu zokusimama, sikunikeza umbono obanzi.Idumela lethu njengendikimba ezimele nengachemi lisho ukuthi ungathembela kokuhlangenwe nakho kwethu, idatha kanye nemibono yenqubomgomo yesimo sezulu.Bonke ababambiqhaza ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwezimpahla badlala indima ebalulekile endleleni eya ekukhiqizweni kwemikhiqizo engekho.Singakusiza ukuthi ufinyelele izinjongo zakho zokusimama, kusukela ekuhlaziyweni kwenqubomgomo kanye nokwehliswa kokungcola kuya ekushintsheni kwamandla ahlanzekile kanye nomnotho oyindilinga okhulayo.
Ukushintsha inqubomgomo yesimo sezulu kanye nezinhlaka zokulawula kudinga ukwesekwa okuqinile kwezinqumo zokuhlaziya.Ubukhona bethu bomhlaba jikelele nolwazi lwasendaweni kuqinisekisa ukuthi sinikeza izwi elinamandla nelithembekile, noma ngabe ukuphi.Imibono yethu, iseluleko nedatha yekhwalithi ephezulu izokusiza wenze izinqumo zebhizinisi zamasu ezifanele ukuze ufinyelele imigomo yakho yokusimama.
Izinguquko ezimakethe zezimali, ezokukhiqiza kanye nobuchwepheshe zizofaka isandla ekukhiqizweni kwegesi, kodwa nazo zithintwa izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni.Kusukela ekusizeni ukuthi uqonde ukuthi lezi zinqubomgomo zikuthinta kanjani, ukuya ekubikezeleni amanani ekhabhoni, ukulinganisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ngokuzithandela, ukukhishwa kokulinganisa, nokwengamela ubuchwepheshe bokunciphisa ikhabhoni, Ukusimama kwe-CRU kukunikeza isithombe esikhulu.
Inguquko yokuhlanza amandla ibeka izidingo ezintsha kumodeli yokusebenza kwenkampani.Isebenzisa idatha yethu ebanzi nolwazi lwemboni, i-CRU Sustainability inikeza ukuhlaziya okuningiliziwe kwekusasa lamandla avuselelekayo, kusukela emoyeni nasesolar kuya ku-hydrogen eluhlaza kanye nesitoreji.Futhi singaphendula imibuzo yakho mayelana nezimoto zikagesi, insimbi yebhethri, isidingo sempahla eluhlaza kanye nokubukeka kwentengo.
Isimo sezemvelo, senhlalo kanye nokubusa (ESG) sishintsha ngokushesha.Ukusebenza kahle kwezinto kanye nokugaywa kabusha kuya ngokuya kubaluleke kakhulu.Amakhono ethu okuxhumana nawendawo okucwaninga, kuhlanganiswe nolwazi olujulile lwemakethe, azokusiza ukuthi uzulazule ezimakethe zesibili eziyinkimbinkimbi futhi uqonde umthelela wezitayela ezisimeme zokukhiqiza.Kusukela ezifundweni kuya ezinhlelweni zesimo, siyakweseka ekuxazululeni izinkinga futhi sikusiza ukuthi ujwayele umnotho oyindilinga.
Izilinganiso zamanani ze-CRU zisekelwe ekuqondeni kwethu okujulile okuyisisekelo kwemakethe yezimpahla, ukusebenza kwalo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka, kanye namandla ethu okuqonda nezimakethe ezibanzi kanye nokuhlaziya.Kusukela sasungulwa ngo-1969, sitshale imali emandleni okucwaninga ayisisekelo kanye nendlela eqinile nesobala, okuhlanganisa namanani entengo.
Funda izindatshana zethu zakamuva zochwepheshe, funda ngomsebenzi wethu ezifundweni, noma thola ngama-webinars azayo nezinkundla zokucobelelana ngolwazi.
Kusukela ngo-2015, ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo emhlabeni wonke bekulokhu kukhuphuka.Yini eyabangela lokhu?Lokhu kuzokuthinta kanjani ukuhweba ngensimbi emhlabeni wonke?Futhi kusho ukuthini lokhu kuhwebo lwesikhathi esizayo kanye nabathumela ngaphandle?
Akhuphukayo Amagagasi Okuvikela Izinyathelo zokuvikela uhwebo zezwe ziphambukisa kuphela ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe emithonjeni ebiza kakhulu, kukhushulwe amanani asekhaya futhi kunikeze ukuvikeleka okwengeziwe kubakhiqizi bezwe abasafufusa.Sisebenzisa isibonelo se-US ne-China, ukuhlaziya kwethu kubonisa ukuthi ngisho nangemva kokwethulwa kwezinyathelo zohwebo, izinga lokungeniswa kwe-US kanye nezinga lokuthengiswa kwe-China akuhlukile kulokho okulindelekile, uma kubhekwa isimo semakethe yensimbi yasekhaya ngayinye. izwe.
Isiphetho esivamile siwukuthi “insimbi ingakwazi futhi izolithola ikhaya.”Amazwe athumela kwamanye amazwe asazodinga insimbi evela kwamanye amazwe ukuze ihambisane nesidingo sawo sasekhaya, kuncike ekuncintisaneni kwezindleko eziyisisekelo futhi, kwezinye izimo, amandla okukhiqiza amabanga athile, angekho kuwo athintwa izinyathelo zokuhwebelana.
Ukuhlaziya kwethu kusikisela ukuthi eminyakeni emi-5 ezayo, njengoba imakethe yasekhaya yaseShayina ithuthuka, uhwebo lwensimbi kufanele lwehle lusuka kumvuthwandaba walo ngo-2016, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwehla kokuthengiswa kwamaShayina kwamanye amazwe, kodwa kufanele kuhlale ngaphezu kwamazinga ka-2013.Ngokusho kwedathabheyisi ye-CRU, amacala okuhweba angaphezu kwe-100 afakwe eminyakeni emi-2 edlule;kuyilapho bonke abathumeli bempahla kwamanye amazwe abakhulu bekuyibo ababehlosiwe kakhulu, inani elikhulu lamacala ohwebo lalibhekene neChina.
Lokhu kusikisela ukuthi isikhundla nje somthengisi omkhulu wensimbi kwandisa amathuba okuba kuvulwe icala lokuhweba ngokumelene nezwe, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yiziphi izici eziyisisekelo kuleli cala.
Kuyabonakala kuthebula ukuthi iningi lamakesi ohwebo ngelemikhiqizo egoqelwe ngokushisayo efana ne-rebar kanye ne-hot-rolled coil, kuyilapho amakesi ambalwa ngawemikhiqizo enenani eliphakeme efana nekhoyili egoqelwe ngokubanda kanye namashidi agqinsiwe.Nakuba izibalo zamapuleti namapayipi angenamthungo zigqama kulokhu, zibonisa isimo esithile sokusebenza ngokweqile kulezi zimboni.Kodwa iyini imiphumela yalezi zinyathelo ezingenhla?Zikuthinta kanjani ukugeleza kohwebo?
Yini eqhuba ukukhula kokuvikela?Esinye sezici eziyinhloko eziqhubekisela ukuqiniswa kokuvikelwa kwezohwebo eminyakeni emibili edlule kube ukwanda kwemikhiqizo yaseShayina ethunyelwa ngaphandle kusukela ngo-2013. Njengoba kuboniswe esithombeni esingezansi, kusukela manje, ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwensimbi emhlabeni kuqhutshwa ngokuphelele yiChina, futhi isabelo sezimpahla zaseShayina ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ekukhiqizeni insimbi yasekhaya sesenyukele ezingeni eliphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa.
Ekuqaleni, ikakhulukazi ngo-2014, ukukhula kwamaShayina athunyelwa ngaphandle akuzange kubangele izinkinga zomhlaba wonke: imakethe yensimbi yase-US yayinamandla futhi izwe lalijabule ukwamukela ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe, kuyilapho izimakethe zensimbi kwamanye amazwe zenza kahle.Isimo sashintsha ngo-2015. Ukufunwa kwensimbi emhlabeni wonke kwehle ngamaphesenti angaphezu kuka-2, ikakhulukazi engxenyeni yesibili ka-2015, isidingo emakethe yensimbi yaseShayina yehla kakhulu, futhi inzuzo yemboni yensimbi yehlela emazingeni aphansi kakhulu.Ukuhlaziywa kwezindleko ze-CRU kubonisa ukuthi intengo yokuthekelisa yensimbi iseduze nezindleko eziguquguqukayo (bheka ishadi ekhasini elilandelayo).
Lokhu kukodwa akukhona okungenangqondo, njengoba izinkampani zensimbi zaseShayina zibheke ukubhekana nokwehla kwamandla emali, futhi ngokwencazelo eqinile yeThemu 1, lokhu akusho ngempela “ukulahla” insimbi emakethe yomhlaba, njengoba amanani asekhaya nawo ayephansi ngaleso sikhathi.Nokho, lokhu kuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kulimaza imboni yensimbi kwenye indawo emhlabeni, njengoba amanye amazwe engakwazi ukwamukela inani lempahla etholakalayo uma kubhekwa izimo zemakethe yasekhaya.
Engxenyeni yesibili ka-2015, i-China yavala umthamo wayo wokukhiqiza we-60Mt ngenxa yezimo ezinzima, kodwa izinga lokwehla, usayizi waseChina njengezwe elikhulu lensimbi, kanye nomzabalazo wangaphakathi wesabelo semakethe phakathi kwezithando zokushisa zasekhaya kanye nezigayo ezinkulu zensimbi ezididiyelwe zashintsha ingcindezi. ukuvala izindawo zokukhiqiza ezingasogwini.Ngenxa yalokho, inani lamacala okuhweba laqala ukwanda, ikakhulukazi ngokumelene neChina.
Umthelela wezindaba zohwebo ekuhwebeni kwensimbi phakathi kwe-US neChina kungenzeka usabalale nakwamanye amazwe.Ishadi elingakwesokunxele libonisa ukuthengiswa kwe-US kusukela ngo-2011 kanye nenzuzo encane yemboni yezwe yensimbi esekelwe olwazini lwe-CRU lwezindleko nokunyakaza kwamanani.
Okokuqala, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi, njengoba kuboniswe ku-scatterplot ngakwesokudla, kukhona ubudlelwano obuqinile phakathi kwezinga lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye namandla emakethe yasekhaya yase-US, njengoba kuboniswa inzuzo yemboni yensimbi.Lokhu kufakazelwa ukuhlaziya kwe-CRU ngokuhamba kohwebo lwensimbi, okukhombisa ukuthi ukuhwebelana kwensimbi phakathi kwalawa mazwe womabili kuqhutshwa yizinto ezintathu ezibalulekile.Lokhu kuhlanganisa:
Noma yiziphi zalezi zici zingagqugquzela ukuhwebelana kwensimbi phakathi kwamazwe nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, futhi empeleni izici eziyisisekelo zingashintsha kaningi uma kuqhathaniswa.
Siyabona ukuthi kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2013 kuya ku-2014 wonke, lapho imakethe yase-US iqala ukusebenza kahle kakhulu kunezinye izimakethe, yavuselela ukuthengwa kwempahla yasekhaya kanye nenani eliphelele lempahla ethengwayo lenyuka lafika ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu.Ngokufanayo, ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwaqala ukwehla njengoba umkhakha wase-US, njengamanye amazwe amaningi, waba kubi kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili ka-2015. Inzuzo yemboni yensimbi yase-US yahlala ibuthakathaka kwaze kwaba sekuqaleni kuka-2016, futhi umzuliswano wamanje wezivumelwano zohwebo ubangelwa a isikhathi esingamahlalakhona senzuzo ephansi.Lezi zenzo seziqalile ukuba nomthelela ekuhambeni kwezohwebo njengoba sekubekwe amanani entengo yezinto ezithengwayo ezivela kwamanye amazwe.Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi nakuba ukungenisa kwe-US kunzima okwamanje kwabanye abangenisa impahla ngaphandle abakhulu, okuhlanganisa i-China, i-South Korea, i-Japan, i-Taiwan, ne-Turkey, inani eliphelele lezwe alikho ngaphansi kunokulindelekile.Izinga beliphakathi kwalokhu obekulindelekile.ububanzi, uma kubhekwa amandla amanje emakethe yasekhaya ngaphambi kwentuthuko ka-2014.Ngokuphawulekayo, uma kubhekwa amandla emakethe yasekhaya yaseShayina, inani eliphelele lezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zaseShayina okwamanje nazo zingaphakathi kwebanga elilindelekile (inothi aliboniswanga), okusikisela ukuthi ukuqaliswa kwezinyathelo zokuhweba akuzange kube nomthelela omkhulu emandleni noma ekuzimiseleni kwayo ukuthumela ngaphandle.Ngakho kusho ukuthini lokhu?
Lokhu kusikisela ukuthi, naphezu kwentela ehlukahlukene kanye nemikhawulo ekuthengisweni kwezinto ezivela e-China nakwamanye amazwe e-United States, lokhu akuzange kunciphise izinga elilindelekile lezwe lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, noma izinga elilindelekile lokuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe.Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi, isibonelo, amazinga okungenisa e-US kanye namazinga okuthunyelwa kwe-China ahlobene nezici ezibaluleke kakhulu ezichazwe ngenhla futhi awekho ngaphansi kwemikhawulo yokuhweba ngaphandle kwezithiyo eziqondile zokungenisa ezweni noma imikhawulo eqinile.
NgoNdasa wezi-2002, uhulumeni wase-US wethula amanani entengo eSigaba 201 futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo wakhuphula intela yokuthengwa kwensimbi emazweni amaningi yaya emazingeni aphezulu kakhulu, okungabizwa ngokuthi umkhawulo wohwebo onzima.Ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwehle cishe ngo-30% phakathi kuka-2001 no-2003, kodwa noma kunjalo, kungaphikiswana ngokuthi ukwehla okukhulu kwakuhlobene ngokuqondile nokuwohloka okuphawulekayo kwezimo zemakethe yasekhaya yase-US okwalandela.Ngenkathi amanani entengo ekhona, ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwashintsha njengoba bekulindelekile emazweni angenayo intela (isb, iCanada, iMexico, iTurkey), kodwa amazwe athintwe amanani entengo aqhubeka nokuhlinzeka ngempahla ethile, izindleko eziphakeme ezithumele amanani ensimbi ase-US aphezulu.okungase kuvele ngenye indlela.Izintela zeSigaba 201 zabe sezihoxiswa ngo-2003 ngenxa yokuthi zathathwa njengokwephulwa kwezibopho zase-US ku-WTO, nangemva kokuba i-European Union isabise ngokuziphindiselela.Kamuva, ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwanda, kodwa ngokuhambisana nokuthuthukiswa okuqinile kwezimo zemakethe.
Kusho ukuthini lokhu ekuhwebeni okujwayelekile?Njengoba kuphawuliwe ngenhla, izinga lamanje lokungeniswa kwe-US alikho ngaphansi kunalokho obekungalindelwe ngokwezidingo zasekhaya, kodwa isimo emazweni abahlinzeki sishintshile.Kunzima ukunquma isisekelo sokuqhathanisa, kodwa inani eliphelele lempahla yase-US ekuqaleni kuka-2012 lalicishe lifane nasekuqaleni kuka-2017. Ukuqhathaniswa kwamazwe abahlinzeki phakathi nezikhathi ezimbili kuboniswe ngezansi:
Nakuba lingacacile, ithebula libonisa ukuthi imithombo yokungeniswa kwe-US ishintshile kule minyaka embalwa edlule.Njengamanje kunempahla eyengeziwe ezayo ogwini lwase-US evela e-Japan, Brazil, Turkey, nase-Canada, kuyilapho impahla encane ivela e-China, Korea, Vietnam, futhi, okuthakazelisayo, i-Mexico (qaphela ukuthi isifinyezo esivela e-Mexico singase sibe nesimo sengqondo mayelana nokungezwani kwakamuva. phakathi kwe-US ne-US).Mexico) kanye nesifiso sokuphatha kukaTrump sokuxoxisana kabusha nemibandela ye-NAFTA).
Kimina, lokhu kusho ukuthi abashayeli abakhulu bezohwebo - ukuncintisana kwezindleko, amandla ezimakethe zasekhaya, namandla ezimakethe zendawo - kuhlala kubalulekile njengakuqala.Ngakho, ngaphansi kwesethi yezimo ezithile ezihlotshaniswa nalawa mandla okushayela, kunezinga lemvelo lokungenisa nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle, futhi imikhawulo yokuhweba eyeqisayo kuphela noma ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwemakethe okungaphazamisa noma kukushintshe kunoma yiliphi izinga.
Emazweni athumela insimbi kwamanye amazwe, lokhu kusho ukuthi “insimbi ingakwazi futhi iyohlala ilithola ikhaya.”Ukuhlaziywa okungenhla kukhombisa ukuthi emazweni angenisa insimbi njenge-United States, imikhawulo yohwebo ingase ibe nomthelela omncane kuphela ezingeni lilonke lempahla ephuma ngaphandle, kodwa ngokombono womnikezeli, ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuzodlulela “kokukhethwa kukho okulandelayo okungcono kakhulu”.Empeleni, “okungcono kakhulu” kungasho ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe eqolo, okunganyusa amanani entengo yasekhaya futhi kunikeze ukuvikeleka okwengeziwe kubakhiqizi bensimbi ezweni elibiza kakhulu2, nakuba ukuncintisana kwezindleko eziyisisekelo kuzohlala kunjalo.Nokho, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lezi zimo zingase zibe nemiphumela evelele yesakhiwo.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuncintisana kwezindleko kungase kwehle njengoba abakhiqizi benezisusa ezincane zokunciphisa izindleko njengoba amanani enyuka.Ukwengeza, ukukhuphuka kwentengo yensimbi kuzokwehlisa amandla okuncintisana embonini yokukhiqiza, futhi ngaphandle uma kubekwa imigoqo yokuhweba kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani lensimbi, isidingo sasekhaya singase sehle njengoba ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi kushintsha phesheya kwezilwandle.
Ukubheka phambili Ngakho kusho ukuthini lokhu ekuhwebeni komhlaba?Njengoba sesishilo, kunezici ezintathu ezibalulekile zohwebo lomhlaba - ukuncintisana kwezindleko, amandla ezimakethe zasekhaya, kanye nesikhundla emakethe yendawo - enomthelela omkhulu ekuhwebeni phakathi kwamazwe.Sizwa futhi ukuthi, uma kubhekwa ubukhulu bayo, i-China iphakathi kwenkulumompikiswano mayelana nohwebo lomhlaba wonke kanye nentengo yensimbi.Kodwa singathini ngalezi zici ze-equation yezohwebo eminyakeni emi-5 ezayo?
Okokuqala, uhlangothi lwesobunxele lweshadi elingenhla lubonisa umbono we-CRU mayelana namandla nokusetshenziswa kweShayina kuze kube u-2021. Sinethemba lokuthi i-China izofinyelela umgomo wayo wokuvala umthamo, okufanele kukhuphule ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kusuka ku-70-75% kuya ku-85% ngokusekelwe kulokho esinakho. izibikezelo zesidingo sensimbi.Njengoba ukwakheka kwezimakethe kuba ngcono, izimo zemakethe yasekhaya (okungukuthi, inzuzo) nazo zizoba ngcono, futhi izigayo zensimbi zaseShayina zizoba nesikhuthazo esincane sokuthumela ngaphandle.Ukuhlaziya kwethu kusikisela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe kungase kwehle kufike ku-<70 metric tons kusukela ku-110 metric tons ngo-2015. Ngokwesilinganiso somhlaba, njengoba kubonisiwe eshadini elingakwesokudla, sikholelwa ukuthi isidingo sensimbi sizokhula eminyakeni emi-5 ezayo futhi njengezwe. umphumela "izimakethe endawo" zizothuthuka futhi ziqale ukuminyanisa ukuthengwa kwempahla ephuma ngaphandle.Kodwa-ke, asilindele noma yikuphi ukungafani okukhulu ekusebenzeni phakathi kwamazwe kanye nomthelela ophelele ekuhwebeni kohwebo kufanele kube kuncane.Ukuhlaziya kusetshenziswa imodeli yezindleko zensimbi ye-CRU kukhombisa izinguquko ezithile ekuqhudelaneni kwezindleko, kodwa akwanele ukuthi zibe nomthelela omkhulu ekuhwebeni komhlaba.Njengomphumela, silindele ukuthi uhwebo lwehle lusuka kumanani aphezulu akamuva, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe okuvela e-China, kodwa luhlale ngaphezu kwamazinga ka-2013.
Isevisi eyingqayizivele ye-CRU ingumphumela wolwazi lwethu olujulile lwemakethe nobudlelwano obuseduze namakhasimende ethu.Silinde impendulo yakho.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-25-2023